Lower Mortgage Rates Spark Best November Lock Activity Since 2021

Even with the usual late-fall slowdown, the mortgage market showed surprising strength in November. According to Optimal Blue’s latest Market Volume Index (MVI), rate lock activity dipped month-over-month — which is completely normal for this time of year — yet still posted its strongest November reading in four years.

The driver: lower mortgage rates.

After hovering near 7 percent through much of 2025, conforming 30-year rates recently drifted toward the low-6 percent range, giving both buyers and homeowners a reason to re-engage.

Rate Relief Continues to Move the Market

Mike Vough, Optimal Blue’s senior vice president of corporate strategy, noted that the data shows a market still responding to rate improvements.

The standout?

Refinances.

• Refis accounted for 35 percent of all November rate locks.

• Rate-and-term refinances are up more than triple compared to November 2024.

• Cash-out refinances — less sensitive to rate drops — are still up 29 percent year-over-year.

Even though total lock activity fell 25 percent from October (a typical seasonal decline), overall volume was 17 percent higher than November 2024.

Purchase Activity Softened, but Buyers Haven’t Disappeared

Purchase locks dropped:

• Down 22 percent from October

• Down 5.7 percent year-over-year

• Purchase MVI = 59

This is the only segment showing a year-over-year decline, a reflection of tight inventory and cautious consumer sentiment — not a lack of interest. Higher affordability driven by lower rates is expected to strengthen purchase activity heading into 2026.

Shift in Loan Types: More Nonconforming Options Gaining Traction

Changes in market share show evolving buyer needs:

• Conforming loans: 52 percent of all locks (slightly lower than last year)

• Nonconforming loans: 17 percent share, notably higher than 2024

• FHA: 19 percent (up month-over-month, but down year-over-year)

• VA loans: 12 percent (a touch lower from October, higher year-over-year)

• USDA loans: 0.4 percent (steady but lower than 2024)

The gain in nonconforming products suggests more buyers are exploring alternative financing solutions — especially helpful for higher-priced markets like the Eastside and Mercer Island.

How Lenders Adjusted Behind the Scenes

Lenders also shifted their exit strategies in November to optimize pricing:

• Cash-window sales to Fannie/Freddie climbed to 25 percent, up 300 bps

• MBS securitizations dipped to 45 percent, ending six months of consistent increases

• Bulk aggregator sales fell to 27 percent

• Best-efforts executions rose to 3 percent

These changes indicate lenders are fine-tuning strategies as pricing spreads widen and loan quality varies near year-end.

What This Means for Local Buyers and Sellers

The Pacific Northwest market — especially the Eastside, Seattle, and Bainbridge Island — is extremely rate-sensitive. Even a small drop can bring buyers back into the conversation.

Today’s rates:
(Based on your screenshots from Optimal Blue)

• 30-Yr Conforming: ~6.25 percent

• 15-Yr Conforming: ~5.55 percent

• 30-Yr Jumbo: ~6.46 percent

• 30-Yr FHA: ~6.14 percent

If rates continue their gradual downward trend, early 2026 could bring:

• More move-up buyers who’ve been waiting for affordability relief

• Increased refinance volume

• A healthier flow of new listings as sellers regain confidence

• Strong demand in premium and jumbo-level markets across the Eastside

Final Thought

November’s data shows one thing clearly: even small improvements in mortgage rates can change market behavior quickly. Whether you’re considering buying, refinancing, or listing your home in 2026, staying informed on rate trends will be key.

Sources

National Mortgage News (Brad Finkelstein); Optimal Blue Market Advantage Report; Optimal Blue Rate Index (screenshots provided).